SEM Chart of the Week
The next episode: Qualification for T-4 Capacity auction
On 3 April, the final qualification results for the upcoming 2023/24 T-4 Capacity Auction were published, breaking down those qualified to bid by technology type. In this week’s SEM Chart of the Week, we consider what these qualification results tell us.
The de-rated capacity requirement for the 2023/24 T-4 auction is 7.5GW, in line with the previous year. De-rating accounts for outages, both planned and unplanned, as well as limitations on operation. Figure 1 presents the new and existing de-rated capacity that has qualified for the upcoming auction. The qualified units total 10.4GW, spanning eight technologies, though more than 80% of the capacity is comprised of gas and steam turbines similar to previous capacity years.
Takin’ chances while we dancin’
Almost 90% of the 3.6GW of new capacity qualifying for the 2023/24 Capacity Auction comes from gas turbine assets suggesting that new-build gas plants are in line to replace ageing thermal units. Followed at some distance by Demand Side Unit (DSU) capacity at 362MW. Although a small percentage of the overall prequalified capacity, the total figure for DSU capacity has grown from 600MW in CY2022/23 to 744MW in CY2023/24 across both new and existing capacity. DSU capacity will be important to provide flexibility and help maintain system stability due to the significant increase expected in the total electricity requirement over the coming decade due to a forecast growth in data centres in the Greater Dublin area.
Hope you ready for the next episode
There are some notable, if not unexpected absences in the new technology categories, predominantly renewable capacity such as wind and solar, presumably due to lack of subsidy. With the first auction of the Renewable Energy Support Scheme due to take place this year will we start to see a change in future auctions or is the incentive just not there?
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